Official data showing the GDP expanding at the fastest pace in seven quarters in the three months ended March 31, a brisk 7.7% at that, is reason for cheer. Given that this has been propelled(प्रेरित) largely(काफी हद तक ) by increases(वृद्धि/विस्तार) in manufacturing and construction activity is a basis for optimism given that the former contributes(योगदान) almost a fifth of quarterly gross value added (GVA) and the latter about 8%. The rebound in construction is all the moreheartening(उत्साहजनक/खुशी) since it is both a creator of direct and indirect jobs and a multiplier of overall output. In the fourth quarter, construction is estimated to have posted a robust 11.5% growth, almost a doubling in pace from the 6.6% in the third quarter, and compares favourably(अनुकूल रूप से) with the contraction of 3.9% seen in the demonetisation-hit year-earlier period. Two key groupings of services that together contributed more than 38% of fourth-quarter GVA — the first comprising trade, hotels, transport, communication and broadcasting; and the second, financial, real estate and professional services — accelerated(त्वरित/गतिवर्धक) year-on-year, helping lift full-year sectoral GVA growth. Agriculture, forestry and fishing continued an accelerating trend over the four quarters of the last fiscal, with growth of 4.5% boosting the annual expansion to 3.4%. While the fiscal year’s pace for this vital sector is still appreciably(पर्याप्त रूप) lower than the 6.3% in 2016-17, if the quarterly momentum is sustained(निरंतर/स्थिर किया हुआ) and the monsoon pans out as forecast, we could see a more broad-based revival in rural demand.
There are, however, pressure points in the estimates of national expenditure(खर्च/खपत). Private final consumption(खपत/उपयोग) expenditure continues to languish(क्षीण होना/मंद होना), with the share of its contribution to GDP sliding to 54.6% in the January-March period, from 59.3% in the preceding(पूर्ववर्ती) quarter and 55.2% a year earlier. Government spending too eased in the fourth quarter, as a proportion, to the lowest quarterly level of the last fiscal(वित्तीय/राजकर-संबंधी) at 9.5%. Only gross fixed capital formation, which reflects investment demand, provided cause for some comfort as it contributed 32.2%, which was the most in percentage terms since the 32.5% posted in April-June 2016. A sobering(बुद्धिमत्ता) thought here is that the very same growth momentum is likely to spur price pressures across the economy that, combined with the bullish(तेजी) trend in global oil, could fan faster inflation(मुद्राप्रसार). This may leave the RBI with little option but to raise interest rates, possibly as early as next week. Separately(अलग से,/भिन्न), the latest survey-based Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index shows manufacturing activity expanded at a weaker pace in May from the previous month amid tepid domestic demand. With borrowing costs set to rise and global trade tensions adding to uncertainties for India’s exporters who are yet to capitalise on the rupee weakness, policymakers will need to eschew populism and stick to policy prudence if thetenuous(छोटा) momentum is to be sustained.
Important Vocabulary
1.Propelled(प्रेरित)
Synonyms: drive, push, send, shoot, thrust
Antonyms: discourage, dissuade, pull, repress, end
2.Tenuous(छोटा)
Synonyms: delicate, dubious, flimsy, insubstantial, nebulous
Antonyms: certain, definite, firm, heavy, strong
3.Sustained(निरंतर/स्थिर किया हुआ)
Synonyms: constant, continued, continuous, uninterrupted, backed
Antonyms: discontinuous, ending, intermittent, interrupted, stopping
4.Languish(क्षीण होना/मंद होना)
Synonyms: deteriorate, dwindle, fail, faint, rot
Antonyms: build, develop, grow, be happy, delight
5.Bullish(तेजी)
Synonyms: compelling, pithy, ball of fire, bullish, cogent
